2022 Midterm Election Analysis
The midterm elections, which Republicans hoped would evidence a wave of support for their candidates have come and gone: there was no “red wave” much less a tsunami, except in Ohio and Florida.
General Observations
The 2022 elections evidenced the continued need for urgent election reforms that to allow for prompt election results to be published. Absentee and mail-in ballots, as well as same day registrations and other intricate measures intended to increase voter “participation”, have made elections in many of the states impossible to call for days and even weeks after the fact.
Although the mainstream media will want to report the Democrat’s single-minded focus on abortion as a great electoral success, and as evidence that America is pro-abortion, the reality is much more complex.
The combination of gigantic fundraising disparities in favor of abortion, overwhelming media bias against pro-lifers, and weak to non-existent pro-life leadership from political and religious figures makes any larger reading of the election results unreliable at best.
The reality is that America is deeply divided on cultural issues. The cultural left has taken power over most institutions and if politics is downstream from culture, the future for social conservatives is not a bright one. However, all is not lost, as social conservatives continue to hold the line preventing the left’s atheistic values from becoming the undisputed status quo, at lest for now.
Here is a summary of what we do know:
Abortion Referendums
The abortion referendums were a total disaster for American prolifers. Abortion was voted in as a fundamental right in California, Vermont, and Michigan.
California
In California, Proposition 1 won by a 65-35% margin. The child in the womb effectively has no rights in California until after birth, and even then, if a child is born alive after an abortion, medical staff have no obligation to render aid to the living born baby.
Kentucky
In Kentucky, Amendment 2, which purported merely to state that there is no state constitutional right to kill babies before birth, with 82% of the vote counted, 51.4% of the electorate disagreed, apparently affirming that a majority of Kentucky believes the murder of innocent babies in the womb should remain legal.
Michigan
In Michigan, Proposal 3 was supported by 56% of the population and will enshrine abortion as a constitutional right of the highest order, making it effectively impossible for the state legislature to pass laws to protect babies in the womb.
Montana
In Montana, Legislative Referendum 131 would have required infants born alive, including those born alive after an abortion, to receive medical care. Amazingly, 52.4% of the people disagreed and preferred to allow abortionists to leave children to die of exposure.
Vermont
Finally, Vermont’s Proposal 5 to make abortion the most protected constitutional right, will pass with an overwhelming majority of 76%.
General Observations About Referendums on Abortion
Every single referendum on abortion had to overcome impossible hurdles
- Crushing fundraising disparities. As described in prior articles, the fundraising disparity between the pro-abortion and pro-life campaigns were remarkable. In California pro-abortion campaigners had a 50:1 edge, in Kentucky it was 5:1 for pro-aborts, in Michigan it was the closest with proaborts outspending prolifers by a 3:1 margin, in Vermont the disparity was 25:1 and in Montana pro-lifers didn’t even organize a campaign committee to support the born alive referred law.
- The media, which is always in favor of the left, is even more biased when it comes to advocating for abortion. If on top of the actual reported funding disparity, one could account for the earned media advantage in favor of abortion, pro-lifers would never run another statewide referendum again.
- The medical establishment, which is still respected by many as an authority on the question of whether the murder of innocent pre-born children should be legal, is well funded and well organized, and consistently comes out in favor of granting blanket immunity for the abortionists among them to have a blank slate when it comes to the taking of innocent preborn life.
- Religious and political leaders who should defend the right to life, instead prefer not to make their case and instead tend to apologize for their pro-life position or else seek to ignore it altogether.
Other Election Results
Besides the overwhelming victory of abortion in the referendums, the broader political results seem to be a mixed bag. One important general observation is that even in states where abortion referendums were lost, pro-life incumbent politicians did not seem to suffer.
As of the writing of this article, the House of Representatives appears to have flipped to the control of the GOP by a razor thin margin, the Senate is still too close to call in Georgia but is leaning towards the Democrat incumbent by a tiny 0.1% advantage with 2% of the vote still to be counted. At this point, the most likely scenario in Georgia is for a runoff, which would be held in December, since neither of the candidates is over the required 50% to win outright.
In Arizona, the Democrat’s lead continues to shrink after 66% of the vote has been counted but is still substantial. In Nevada and Wisconsin, Republicans appear to have a small but durable lead.
Overall, it appears that despite crushing inflation, an economy in recession, skyrocketing crime waves in many parts of the country, and an incompetent and unpopular president, the nation remains exactly where it did in the doldrums of an irreconciliable cultural and political divide.
Bright Spots for Conservatives in Ohio and Florida
Ohio
One of the most important elections for prolifers was Ohio’s three openings to the Supreme Court, where pro-life Republicans hold a one member majority that will be deciding important cases on abortion.
All three seats were won by the Republican judges, Sharon Kennedy, Pat Fischer and Pat DeWine, giving pro-lifers in Ohio the hope (not the certainty) that the court will not invalidate their current and future pro-life laws.
Ohio also saw the election of JD Vance, who will take over the seat of fellow Republican Rob Portman. Portman, a pro-abortion Republican will be replaced by Vance, who has stated he is pro-life but believes children conceived in rape should not be protected from abortion. Vance is also in favor of homosexual “marriage.” It remains to be seen, whether he will be a reliable conservative, but he could hardly be worse than his predecessor.
Florida
While the red wave did not materialize in most of the country, Florida, under the capable and very visible leadership of Ron DeSantis (59 – 40) and to a lesser extent Marco Rubio (58-41) led a veritable red “hurricane” that saw them win even in counties like Miami-Dade that voted for Joe Biden by fairly wide margins in 2020.
At the legislative level, Florida also elected a super majority in the State House and the State Senate.
In essence, Florida went from being a purple state to a red state.
Surely, DeSantis’ leadership and success in the 2022 elections will not go unnoticed as America goes directly from the midterms to the next presidential elections in 2024.
Guabe,
Your analysis, though somewhat depressing (can it be any other way?), is excellent and very insightful. I have of course heard a lot of commentary: GOP is to blame for not being outspokenly pro-life; media is controlling the narrative on abortions; college students- who apparently are not feeling the economic effects of the Biden administration, but still want to be their own “gods” on life, voted for abortion (that’s my take); that money is the final determiner and being outspent is the reason we lost in MI, CA, VT, et al (I’m not convinced that money is the final or largest factor). Many of these are factors, including that leftist run states are going to largely remain leftist in voting patterns. I think that the culture- as you said – being upstream from politics is the main reason why we are in the terrible state we are in politically. I maintain that reaching vulnerable girls and women is the main way we save the pre-born. Makes no difference what law is in “force” if the culture says “its my right to control my body” and nobody challenges that. In Georgia we have a “heartbeat” law – flawed, with exceptions like rape, incest, defective child, life of mother, medical emergency,etc. Plus the abortionist determines if a heartbeat is present! Talk about conflict of interest! But – and here is the kicker – the DA’s of Fulton County (#1 in abortions) and DeKalb (#2 in abortions) have both said they will not prosecute abortionists who violate the law!! They couch it in saying that will be their lowest priority for prosecutions. What that means is that the 13 abortion clinics, most of which are in those counties, continue to ply their bloody trade. God be merciful to us. We have media and public outreaches going all the time – Facebook ads and Google AdWords leading to Teenbreaks.com website and PRC connections; thousands reached daily and thousands of girls and women visiting every month. Billboards in heavy traffic areas when we have funds, and campus events around the state. 23 chapters with their events as well. The 4000+ petitions were delivered to Gov Kemp last week to ask him to call a special legislative session to put the question on the ballot for Georgia. I do believe it would pass to amend the constitution to allow for personhood rights from conception. Our 2012 straw vote gave 66% Yes vote across the state. But again, no matter what the law says, enforcement is low in Georgia. And since 2007 we have failed to find 2/3 super majority in house and senate here to get it on the ballot.
Thank you so much for your tireless efforts and for the excellent things you are doing.
Steve
Gualberto,
I want to quickly add that petitioning the Governor to do the right thing is always appropriate and necessary! Our efforts are not being appreciated by some because they apparently think that the “heartbeat” law is adequate, despite the fact that it is not being adequately enforced, leaves thousands of children unprotected (early weeks of pregnancy) and is just a halfway measure (if that).